Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump Among Suburban Voters, Poll Shows

Photo: Reuters

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has eliminated Republican rival Donald Trump's lead among suburban residents and middle-income households, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling.

Since President Joe Biden suspended his reelection campaign on July 21, Vice President Harris has gained the upper hand in these key demographic groups, boosting Democrats' chances in the upcoming Nov. 5 election, although the race remains very close.

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Suburban voters, who account for about half of the U.S. electorate and reflect the nation’s racial diversity, are critical. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden won suburban counties by approximately six percentage points over Trump.

Before Biden's exit, Trump held a 43% to 40% lead over him among suburban voters in June and July Reuters/Ipsos polls, indicating the Democrats’ struggle to engage supporters. However, Harris began closing this gap when she launched her campaign in July, leading Trump 47% to 41% among suburban voters in September and October polls—a nine-point swing in favor of the Democrats based on six Reuters/Ipsos surveys involving over 6,000 registered voters.

During the same timeframe, Trump shifted from leading Biden 44% to 37% among households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 to trailing Harris 43% to 45%, also a nine-point swing against Trump. Trump had won this group 52% to 47% in 2020, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of exit polls.

Surveys show voters prioritizing the economy ahead of the election, with an October poll indicating that 46% believe Trump is the better candidate for economic issues, eight points ahead of Harris at 38%. Additionally, polls reveal Trump as the more trusted candidate on immigration and crime, claiming he would ensure suburbs remain safe and prevent illegal migrants from entering.

Trump has attributed inflation impacting middle-class Americans to the Biden administration, while Harris has focused on expanding the middle class in her speeches. She is often viewed in polls as the stronger candidate for protecting democracy and combating political extremism.

"Her emphasis on affordability has effectively narrowed Trump's edge on inflation and the economy," noted David Wasserman, a political analyst at the Cook Political Report. He observed that Harris seems to be resonating with more affluent suburbanites who may be feeling optimistic about the economy, while her appeal to middle-income voters could stem from her campaign's commitments to assist these households.

Wasserman also highlighted that turnout in Democratic-leaning urban areas and Republican-leaning rural communities could be pivotal in deciding the election.

Harris supporters contacted by Reuters expressed that they hadn't closely followed her before she became a presidential candidate, but their support grew as they learned more about her.

The latest of the six polls, conducted from October 4 to 7, indicated Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin of three percentage points among registered voters, 46% to 43%. While this slight edge in national polling is significant, the election's outcome will likely depend on results from seven battleground states—Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Georgia—where polls indicate a tight race.

Winning the middle ground—whether nationally or in crucial states—doesn't guarantee victory. For instance, Hillary Clinton won nearly three million more votes than Trump nationwide in the 2016 election and edged him out in suburban counties by about one point, yet she lost after Trump flipped six states that had voted Democratic in 2012.

Sheila Lester, an 83-year-old Harris supporter from Peoria, Arizona, located in the battleground Maricopa County, expressed her previous concerns about Trump's chances against Biden but felt reassured by the Democratic Party's swift support for Harris, especially with the potential for her to become the first female U.S. president. "The response she has received makes me prouder of this country," said Lester, who appreciates Harris' stance on abortion rights and her commitment to growing the middle class. "I am definitely anti-Trump, but I believe I'm more pro-Harris."

Maricopa County played a crucial role in Biden's 2020 victory, narrowly flipping Democratic after supporting Trump in 2016. 

Karen Davidson, 83, from West Bloomfield, Michigan, a middle-class suburb of Detroit, admitted she wasn’t familiar with Harris before she became the leading candidate. “I needed to know more about her to form any kind of thought,” Davidson said, adding that she respected Harris’ resilience against critics, drawing from her own experiences in a male-dominated industry.

In Pooler, Georgia, a suburb of Savannah, grocery store employee Kevin Garcia also felt reassured by Biden’s withdrawal, preferring Harris' promises to support small businesses over Trump's plans to tax imported goods. "I just feel better about the chances," said Garcia, 24, who lives in a suburban neighborhood that, like Arizona, narrowly flipped Democratic in 2020.