Human-induced Global Warming Accelerating at 0.26°C per Decade

Photo : PTI

The second annual Indicators of Global Climate Change Report reveals alarming findings about human-induced global warming. The report, prepared by over 50 climate scientists under the supervision of the University of Leeds, shows that human-induced warming has increased to 1.19°C over the past decade (2014-2023). This marks an increase from the 1.14°C reported for the previous decade (2013-2022).

The rate of human-induced global warming is now increasing at 0.26°C per decade, the highest rate since records began. Last year, the warming caused by human activity reached 1.3°C, with the total global temperature being 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 average, as per the multi-data set mean used in the study.

The report also highlights the role of natural climate variability, particularly the El Niño phenomenon, in contributing to the record temperatures experienced in 2023. The analysis emphasizes the urgency of addressing carbon emissions, noting that the remaining carbon budget—the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted before surpassing the 1.5°C global warming threshold—is approximately 200 gigatonnes (billion tonnes). This equates to about five years of current emissions levels.

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In 2020, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5°C target to be between 300 and 900 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, with a central estimate of 500 gigatonnes. However, continued CO2 emissions and global warming have since reduced this budget. As of early 2024, the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is between 100 and 450 gigatonnes, with a central estimate of 200 gigatonnes.

Piers Forster, director of the University of Leeds Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, stated that their analysis indicates that global warming caused by human activities has continued to rise over the past year, despite efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. "Global temperatures are still heading in the wrong direction and faster than ever before. Our analysis is designed to track the long-term trends caused by human activities," Forster said.

He added that observed temperatures are influenced by long-term trends modulated by short-term natural variations. "Last year, when observed temperature records were broken, these natural factors were temporarily adding around 10% to the long-term warming," Forster explained.

The report's findings coincide with the Bonn Climate Conference (June 3 to June 13), which aims to set the agenda for this year's climate negotiations and discuss a new finance goal to replace the current target of $100 billion per year. This new goal is intended to channel more funds toward urgently needed climate action in developing countries.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell, speaking at the Bonn conference, warned that without international cooperation, the world could be headed for up to 5 degrees of global heating, a level that most of humanity likely could not survive. "We are now headed for around 2.7 degrees. This is still ruinously high, and there’s a long and steep road ahead to get to our shared goal of 1.5 this century, but we should be energized that we are approaching a halfway point," Stiell said.

Joeri Rogelj, a climate science and policy professor at Imperial College London, stressed the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. He noted that the relentless emission of carbon dioxide, combined with the exceptional warming of the past year, has made the 1.5°C budget smaller than ever. "Global warming stands at 1.3°C; significantly lowering greenhouse gas pollution over the next 5 to 10 years is the only way to ensure that the planet is not warming by another quarter of a degree by 2035," Rogelj said.

These findings underscore the critical need for immediate and sustained action to combat climate change and limit global warming to 1.5°C.