Bangladesh Faces Election Tensions After Sheikh Hasina’s Death Sentence

Dhaka, Bangladesh – November 19, 2025: The sentencing of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death on charges of crimes against humanity has plunged Bangladesh into a state of political uncertainty. While Hasina remains in exile in India since August 5, 2024, her party, the Awami League, faces a ban from political activities ahead of the crucial February elections.

Hasina’s son has warned that the Awami League may attempt to block the upcoming elections if the ban is not lifted, calling for an inclusive poll to stabilize the nation. Analysts caution that this heightened polarization, combined with a history of violent crackdowns on protesters, could make the election period tense and potentially dangerous.

“The interim government has fully suppressed the Awami League … the level of polarization is at a fever pitch,” said Michael Kugelman, senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. He emphasized that the biggest risk lies in election-related violence, particularly given morale issues within Bangladesh’s police force, which bore the brunt of violent protests in 2024.

Since Hasina’s exile, Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Muhammad Yunus, has been under pressure to hold a credible election. The administration is tasked with navigating a complex political landscape where decades of dominance by either Hasina or her longtime rival have left citizens divided. Observers note that Yunus must ensure free and fair elections without tipping the balance toward the Bangladesh Nationalist Party or the Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s largest Islamist party.

Despite Bangladesh’s request for her extradition, India is unlikely to send Hasina back, allowing her to continue guiding the Awami League remotely. Analysts suggest that Hasina will bide her time, managing her party’s affairs from India while planning for a long-term political comeback if circumstances change.

Former BBC Bengali Service head Sabir Mustafa said the Awami League faces significant challenges without Hasina’s leadership. “The party needs reform if it wants to move forward. Without Hasina driving these reforms, it will be difficult for the Awami League to regain its footing in future elections,” Mustafa said.

The verdict has drawn mixed reactions from the international community. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International raised concerns about fairness and due process, while the UN’s High Commissioner for Human Rights acknowledged the moment as significant for victims of last year’s crackdown, though opposed the death penalty.

Kugelelman emphasized that Yunus’ immediate priority is to maintain a peaceful environment for the February election. “These are high-stakes polls—the first in nearly 20 years with strong expectations for free and fair voting,” he said. Analysts note that managing security, voter confidence, and fair participation will be key to restoring political stability and international credibility for Bangladesh.

With deep political polarization, an electoral ban on the Awami League, and Hasina’s ongoing influence from abroad, Bangladesh faces a challenging path to a credible election. How the interim government manages these dynamics will define the nation’s political trajectory in the years ahead.