How Trump's 'America-First' Agenda May Challenge US-India Relations

Photo : AFP

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former US President Donald Trump have built a strong personal bond, often referring to each other as friends. However, experts warn that this camaraderie may face significant challenges if Trump returns to the presidency, particularly due to his trade policies. While Modi and Trump have exchanged warm gestures during their past meetings, Trump's approach to trade, including his harsh critiques of India, will likely test the relationship.

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During his first term, Trump often criticized India as a "tariff king" and "trade abuser," expressing dissatisfaction with the trade imbalance between the two countries. He pledged to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on countries that run trade surpluses with the United States. This could negatively impact India, which is the ninth-largest trading partner of the US, with a trade surplus of more than $30 billion in 2023-24. Trump's commitment to bringing jobs back to America through reshoring and reducing reliance on foreign manufacturing might have serious consequences for India's industries, which benefit from a robust trade relationship with the US.

Trump's "America First" policy, which seeks to boost US manufacturing and protect American jobs, could lead to a slowdown for Indian companies. For years, India has thrived as a key player in global outsourcing, with its top tech companies, including TCS and Infosys, serving as critical partners to American firms in IT services. Additionally, India has been promoting local manufacturing with its "Make in India" initiative, which encourages both foreign and local businesses to invest in the country. Apple, among others, has expanded operations in India, seeking to reduce its dependence on China for supply chains.

However, under Trump's potential second term, if he aggressively pursues tariffs and trade policies to curb trade deficits, India's tech giants and manufacturing sector may face substantial setbacks. Business experts like Ashok Malik of The Asia Group foresee a resurgence of the kind of tariff wars Trump initiated in his first term, with China as the primary target but India likely caught in the crossfire.

Despite these looming concerns, Modi and Trump's personal relationship has been a notable aspect of their diplomatic interactions. In 2019, during Trump's first term, the two leaders shared a public stage at a Houston rally, where over 50,000 Indian-Americans cheered them on. Modi reciprocated by hosting Trump in India the following year at a massive rally in Gujarat, which attracted around 100,000 people. The mutual admiration was clear, with Trump calling Modi "a friend of mine" and praising him as a "total killer" with a reputation for being both personable and tough.

While their relationship remains strong on a personal level, geopolitical challenges loom. India is one of the largest sources of legal migration to the US, but there has been a significant rise in illegal immigration as well, particularly through crossings from Canada and Mexico. Trump has vowed to tighten immigration policies, and any mass deportations of Indians could cause a diplomatic crisis, especially in the context of the strong migration ties between the two nations.

In terms of economic cooperation, India's relationship with the US has been growing, especially in sectors like defence, technology, and semiconductor production. As a member of the US-led Quad alliance, alongside Australia and Japan, India is seen as a strategic partner in countering China's rising influence in the Asia-Pacific region. However, analysts like Professor Harsh V Pant of King’s College London caution that Trump’s unpredictable nature could disrupt the trajectory of growing cooperation between the two countries. His transactional approach to foreign policy, focused on short-term gains, could create uncertainty about the future of US-India relations.

In summary, while Modi and Trump share a close personal relationship, it remains to be seen how trade disputes, immigration issues, and shifting geopolitical dynamics will impact their bond if Trump returns to power. India's growing global influence and its deepening partnership with the US could face significant tests in the event of Trump's policies taking a more aggressive stance on trade and immigration.