Global Aid Cuts May Cause 22 Million Deaths by 2030, Study Warns

A growing alarm is spreading across the global health community as a new study warns that abrupt cuts to development aid by some of the world’s biggest donors could lead to a catastrophic loss of life. According to research conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health and partner organizations, reductions planned by the United States, Britain, Germany and France could result in up to 22.6 million additional deaths in low- and middle-income countries by 2030. What makes the findings even more disturbing is that more than 5.4 million of these deaths could be among children under the age of five.

The warning arrives at a critical moment. For the first time in nearly three decades, all four major donor countries have cut development aid, and each is preparing for further reductions in 2025. The study highlights that these cuts threaten to undo years of progress that lifted millions out of poverty, expanded access to healthcare and improved survival rates for young children in some of the world’s most vulnerable regions. Researchers examined data from 93 low- and middle-income countries to measure how the loss of official development assistance could impact health, survival and basic services. Their findings paint a devastating picture of the world’s poorest communities facing worsening disease, hunger and preventable deaths.

Under the severe scenario modeled in the study, the poorest countries could face development aid cuts as high as 25 percent, while nations in sub-Saharan Africa could see reductions of up to 28 percent. These regions are already struggling with fragile health systems, high child mortality rates and limited resources to manage infectious diseases. The report warns that communities that depend on external funding for vaccination programs, maternal health, nutrition support, disease prevention and emergency care may face immediate and long-term consequences. Even in a milder scenario, where aid reduction is less drastic, the projections remain alarming: an estimated 9.4 million preventable deaths, including 2.5 million young children, could occur by 2030.

This is not the first time experts have raised concerns about shrinking aid budgets. Earlier research published in a leading medical journal suggested that cuts to the US Agency for International Development alone could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030. The new study builds on that evidence and extends it, revealing the combined effect of multiple donor nations cutting their support at the same time. The researchers also point out that 2025 may mark the first instance in history where the US, Britain, Germany and France simultaneously reduce development aid for two consecutive years. They warn that such a sudden withdrawal leaves developing countries with almost no time or resources to create alternative strategies that could soften the blow.

Several European nations have already announced significant reductions. The study notes cuts of 40 percent in Britain, 37 percent in France, 30 percent in the Netherlands and 25 percent in Belgium. These reductions arrive at a moment when developing countries are already struggling with rising costs, economic instability, the impacts of climate change and the lingering effects of the pandemic. Many human rights groups and development experts fear that without stable aid, essential health programs may collapse, vaccination drives may slow and millions will lose access to lifesaving treatments.

The authors of the study emphasize that the world is at a turning point. After nearly three decades of unprecedented gains in reducing global poverty, improving education access and strengthening health systems, the progress is at risk of being undone. They warn that the consequences of cutting aid extend far beyond budget decisions made in wealthy capitals. Lives are at stake, and the poorest communities will be hit first and hardest.

As governments debate next year’s budgets, the findings highlight a critical question: will the world allow decades of hard-earned progress to collapse, or will donor nations reconsider the human cost of their decisions?