Trump's Influence Looms Large Over COP29 Summit Discussions

Photo : Reuters

The ongoing COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, has begun amid growing concerns about the future of the Paris climate agreement, especially with the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States. Trump has pledged to withdraw the US from the landmark agreement, which he previously exited in 2017 during his first term. While President Joe Biden reversed this decision in 2021, Trump's stance has revived fears that the US could once again undermine global climate efforts.

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The conference, which began on November 11, focuses on strategies for reducing fossil fuel reliance and boosting climate aid to developing nations. A central issue at COP29 is the commitment made by developed countries in 2009 at the Copenhagen Summit to mobilize $100 billion annually to assist developing countries in addressing climate change. Although the Paris Agreement reaffirmed this pledge, only $83.3 billion was raised by 2020, with the target finally met in 2023. At COP29, delegates are discussing plans to ramp up these financial flows tenfold, aiming for at least $1 trillion per year starting in 2026.

However, concerns about the US's commitment to the Paris Agreement are at the forefront. John Podesta, the US climate envoy, acknowledged that Trump’s administration might attempt to reverse climate action policies again but assured that US cities, states, and citizens would continue pushing for climate progress. Despite these reassurances, Trump’s skepticism about climate change, which he has described as a "hoax," raises doubts about the future of US involvement in climate negotiations.

The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement during Trump’s first term was met with widespread global criticism. It prompted fears that other countries might follow suit. Trump’s re-election promises further complications for global climate efforts, potentially dismantling years of progress made under Biden’s administration, including the goal to cut US emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. If Trump follows through on his pledges, it could severely undermine the entire framework of international climate talks and damage efforts to limit global warming.

The US's potential exit could also send the wrong message to other large emitters, including China and India, who may reconsider their own climate commitments. In the absence of the US, China could further solidify its position as a global leader in clean energy technologies, such as solar panels and electric vehicles, leaving the US on the sidelines of the clean energy revolution. 

The Baku summit is particularly crucial as 2024 has been the warmest year on record, with global temperatures surpassing the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. India, also experiencing extreme weather events such as heatwaves and intense rainfall, reported that extreme events affected 93% of its days in the first nine months of 2024, causing widespread damage to crops, infrastructure, and lives.

In previous COP discussions, countries agreed to establish a Loss and Damage Fund to help developing nations cope with the financial and social impacts of climate change. However, the current summit faces resistance from developed nations that are reluctant to shoulder the financial burden of climate change aid. There have been calls to expand the donor base to include wealthier countries like Singapore, China, and the UAE. Any decision made by the US regarding its climate finance contributions, particularly its $3 billion pledge to the UN's Green Climate Fund, will have significant repercussions on global climate finance efforts.

The US is the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China, and its participation in global climate negotiations is crucial to driving both emissions reductions and financing for climate initiatives. Without the US’s leadership and commitment, climate targets set by the international community may become meaningless, leaving the world at greater risk of irreversible climate damage.

As COP29 progresses, the role of the US in the climate conversation remains uncertain, but its stance will likely influence global climate action in the years to come. The next US President's approach to climate change will have profound implications on the success or failure of international efforts to mitigate the impacts of global warming.

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