EU Irregular Crossings Drop 60% in January 2026

Irregular border crossings into the European Union dropped sharply in January 2026, falling by 60% compared to the same month last year, according to new data released by Frontex.

The European Border and Coast Guard Agency recorded around 5,500 detections of irregular crossings at the EU’s external borders in January. This is a major decline from nearly 13,500 detections in January 2025.

Severe Weather Disrupts Routes

Frontex said that violent winter storms, rough seas across the Mediterranean, and strong winds along land routes disrupted migrant departures and made journeys more dangerous.

Despite the overall drop in arrivals, the human toll increased. According to the Missing Migrants Project by the International Organisation for Migration, at least 452 people died or went missing in the Mediterranean in January. This is more than three times the 93 deaths recorded in January 2025.

Frontex stated in a press release that harsh weather conditions significantly disrupted departures. However, smugglers continued to launch overcrowded boats even in freezing temperatures and heavy seas.

Eastern Mediterranean Remains Busiest Route

The Eastern Mediterranean route remained the busiest path into the EU, with nearly 1,900 arrivals in January. However, this number was still 50% lower than in January 2025.

The Western Mediterranean and Central Mediterranean routes each reported around 1,200 arrivals, also showing steep year-on-year declines.

The Western African route recorded the sharpest drop, with crossings down 79% compared to last year. On the Western Balkans route, detections fell by 745 cases. At the eastern land border between Belarus and the Baltic states, crossings declined by 75%.

On the Channel route toward the United Kingdom, detections dropped by about 9% to nearly 2,300.

Frontex clarified that its figures represent detections of crossings, not individual people. This means one person may be counted more than once if they attempt to cross at different locations.

Cyclone Harry Impact

Storm activity also played a major role in the decline. Cyclone Harry hit parts of the Mediterranean coast between January 19 and 21, causing damage in Greece, Italy, Malta, and Portugal. Frontex linked the severe weather caused by the cyclone to the sharp monthly drop in crossings.

Border Management and New EU System

Frontex currently has more than 3,000 officers deployed along the EU’s external borders. The agency supports national authorities in border management and search-and-rescue operations, especially during extreme weather conditions.

The January figures are preliminary and based on reports from EU member states and Schengen-associated countries. Frontex stressed that detection numbers do not equal unique individuals.

The drop in irregular crossings comes as the European Commission rolls out new border management systems.

The Entry/Exit System (EES), launched on October 12, 2025, is replacing passport stamps with digital records for non-EU nationals visiting for up to 90 days within a 180-day period. The system records each entry and exit at participating countries’ external borders and is being phased in until April 10, 2026.

The European Commission said the new system aims to track overstays and detect identity fraud by collecting biometric data.