China's Export Growth Hits a Snag Amid Iran Conflict

Hong Kong, April 14, 2026 — In a notable shift, China's export growth for March has decelerated sharply to just 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by global uncertainties stemming from the Iran conflict. This figure marks a significant downturn from the robust 21.8% growth seen in January and February, as reported by Chinese customs data.

The decline not only fell short of analysts' predictions but also raised alarms regarding the weakening pace of global trade. In contrast, imports surged by 27.8% in March, signaling a robust domestic market and increased buying activities.

Experts are pointing to rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions due to the ongoing war as key pressures on the global economy. Gary Ng, an economist with Natixis, noted that the impact of the conflict is beginning to ripple through global demand and supply chains, which is contributing to the weaker export figures.

On a positive note, China's tech sector remains a crucial player in export stability. The demand for semiconductors, amplified by the artificial intelligence surge, alongside an upswing in renewable energy products—such as solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles—are helping to cushion the impact.

Economists at Bank of America caution that a prolonged conflict could lead to a more pronounced slowdown in global demand. However, they observe that energy supply disruptions could enhance interest in China’s green energy solutions in the future.

Tensions with the United States have further complicated matters, with exports to the U.S. plummeting by 26.5% in March, while shipments to Europe and Southeast Asia saw increases of 8.6% and 6.9%, respectively, indicating a shift in China's trading strategies.

For 2026, China has set its economic growth target between 4.5% and 5%, the most conservative in recent decades. Although exports are vital to growth, challenges remain, including the ongoing slowdown in the property sector and global uncertainties. Analysts note that China's diversified energy resources and substantial oil reserves have so far mitigated the negative impact of the conflict.