UAE Launches Growth Plan to Increase Emirati Representation

Shaima, an Emirati student residing in Abu Dhabi, shares her life with her four siblings and parents in a household of seven. Despite this number, she considers her family small compared to her father’s upbringing, where he was one of 12 children in a time when large families were common in the region.

Shaima's experience highlights a significant social shift occurring across the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Over the past few decades, the fertility rate among Emirati women has dramatically decreased. Official data reveals that women today have approximately half the number of children their grandmothers did in 1970. The fertility rate has dropped from 6.7 children per woman in 1970 to around 3.7 by 2017, with more recent figures indicating it was 3.2 in 2021.

This decline in family size has raised concerns among Emiratis, who now find themselves a minority in their own country, with expatriates making up 93.5% of the UAE's approximately 9.5 million population, according to UN statistics. Shaima expresses her frustration with this trend, describing it as "upsetting" and emphasizing the feelings of displacement among Emiratis.

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William Guéraiche, an associate professor at the University of Wollongong in Dubai, points out that the growing demographic imbalance between Emiratis and expatriates is a sensitive issue. He notes that many Emiratis feel increasingly marginalized as the population becomes more diverse. "This imbalance will grow, and Emiratis feel more and more under siege, rightly or not," he said.

The swift decline in fertility rates has sparked concern among UAE authorities, particularly given that the fertility rate could potentially halve again if current trends continue. Luca Maria Pesando, an associate professor of social research and public policy at NYU Abu Dhabi, describes the rapid change as significant for a demographic transition.

While the current rate of 3.2 is above the replacement rate of 2.1 live births per woman—indicating that the number of Emiratis is not decreasing—the government remains focused on encouraging larger families. One former official noted the inevitability of the Emirati population shrinking as a percentage of the total population, stating, “If we attract more people into the country, this automatically diminishes us as a percentage. How do you counter that? Encourage people to have more kids.”

To address these concerns, the UAE government has traditionally offered various subsidies to Emirati families, including financial assistance for housing, weddings, and childcare. Recently, the government introduced the “Emirati Family Growth Support Programme” in Abu Dhabi, which provides incentives for larger families, such as reduced loan debt for families having their fourth, fifth, and sixth children.

Hamad Ali Al Dhaheri, under-secretary of Abu Dhabi’s community development department, emphasized the importance of Emirati families in achieving social stability and preserving national identity. The government is keen to bolster the Emirati population as part of its broader societal goals.

Although comprehensive national statistics on the population composition are not publicly available, data from Dubai—a major business and tourism hub—indicates that the expat population is still growing faster than that of Emiratis. From 2015 to 2023, the number of Emiratis in Dubai increased by 31%, while the expatriate population surged by 46%.

While expatriates primarily occupy transient roles and have limited opportunities for citizenship, the UAE has recently made strides in offering long-term visas and encouraging foreign investment in property and businesses. This move aligns with the country’s ambitious economic plans, which anticipate a further influx of overseas workers.

The rapid growth in the UAE's economy, particularly following the discovery of oil in the 1960s, has transformed the nation from a largely impoverished tribal society to one of the wealthiest in the region. As of 2023, the UAE boasts the second-highest gross domestic product per capita in the Middle East, according to World Bank data.

However, this economic prosperity has contributed to a declining birth rate, as many Emiratis cite rising living costs as a barrier to having larger families. One government employee and mother of one noted that the financial burden of childcare and education deterred her from planning more children.

Moreover, the UAE's success in promoting women's education and employment has led many young Emirati women to delay marriage and childbearing. With a high labor force participation rate of 55% among women aged over 15—compared to an average of 19% across the Middle East and North Africa—many women prioritize their careers.

Huda, a 30-year-old museum researcher whose mother had nine children, expressed her desire for independence, saying, “I wanted to pursue my own path.” This sentiment is echoed by Shaima, who aspires to balance her professional life with motherhood. She envisions having four children but acknowledges the challenges of managing a large family while working.

Despite government initiatives aimed at supporting working mothers, such as extending maternity leave to 60 days, many young Emiratis remain cautious about returning to the large families of the past. Shaima sums up her perspective: “I know I’m going to be a working mum. I need to balance my working life and taking care of my kids, and having a lot of kids is not going to help.”