Japan PM Takaichi Warns of Military Role in Taiwan, Angers China

Tokyo and Beijing are facing heightened tensions after Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, suggested that Japan could potentially intervene militarily if China attempts to invade Taiwan. The comments, made in Takaichi’s first parliamentary address since taking office in October, have provoked a furious response from China, escalating a delicate regional situation.

Takaichi stated that Japan must “anticipate a worst-case scenario” regarding the Taiwan contingency, highlighting the strategic proximity of Taiwan to Japan—just 110 kilometers from its territory. While Japan’s postwar constitution restricts the use of military force for settling disputes, a 2015 law allows collective self-defense under certain circumstances. Takaichi indicated that Japan could deploy its Self-Defense Forces if a conflict in Taiwan posed an existential threat.

The prime minister, who hails from the right wing of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and is influenced by former PM Shinzo Abe’s hawkish China policy, has made strengthening Japan’s defense a priority. She announced plans to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP by March 2026, two years ahead of schedule, and focused on fortifying Japan’s outlying islands in the East China Sea, including the Senkaku Islands, a long-standing point of dispute with China.

China reacted strongly, condemning Takaichi’s remarks as a “military threat” against its sovereignty. A now-deleted social media post by the Chinese consul general in Osaka warned ominously of retaliation, while Chinese state media described her statements as “dangerously provocative.” The Chinese military sent a coast guard vessel near the Senkaku Islands and flew drones near Yonaguni, Japan’s westernmost island. Beijing also issued travel advisories and warnings for Chinese nationals in Japan, claiming unspecified threats to public safety.

The historical context adds complexity to the situation. Taiwan was under Japanese colonial rule for about 50 years until the end of World War II, when it reverted to Chinese governance under the Republic of China (ROC). Today, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) claims Taiwan as its province, while Taiwan maintains de facto independence, backed by international partners including the United States. Analysts warn that any conflict over Taiwan could quickly involve regional powers such as Japan and the US, potentially triggering a wider geopolitical crisis.

While a direct military confrontation remains unlikely, experts caution that increased activity in disputed zones, like the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and around the Senkaku Islands, raises the risk of accidents or miscalculations escalating into hostilities. In the short term, the dispute has already impacted economic ties. Beijing’s travel alerts to its citizens in Japan caused Japanese retail and tourism stocks to drop sharply, threatening billions in economic activity. Nomura Research Institute estimates potential losses of ¥2.2 trillion ($14 billion).

Despite mounting pressure from Beijing, Takaichi has not recanted her statements. Japanese media report that a high-level envoy is being dispatched to Beijing to manage the situation, highlighting the delicate balance between asserting national security interests and maintaining regional stability.

The unfolding dispute between Tokyo and Beijing underscores Taiwan’s central role in East Asian geopolitics and the complex interdependencies between security, diplomacy, and economics in the region. With both nations maintaining firm stances, global attention is now focused on how far tensions could escalate and the potential repercussions for international trade and security alliances.