Sensex, Nifty 50 Likely to Open Flat Amid Market Caution Today

The Indian stock market is expected to start the trading session on a quiet note on Tuesday. Both the Sensex and Nifty 50, the country’s main stock indices, are showing signs of cautious trading. Investors are keeping a careful eye on the market, and early trends suggest that prices may not move significantly at the start of the day.

The trends in Gift Nifty, which reflects overseas trading in Nifty futures, indicate a flat opening. At around 25,158 points, Gift Nifty is slightly lower than the previous Nifty futures close, showing a small discount of nearly 6 points.

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On Monday, the Indian equity markets ended with minor losses, showing that investors remain cautious.

• The Sensex fell by 118.96 points, or 0.15%, closing at 81,785.74.

• The Nifty 50 dropped 44.80 points, or 0.18%, settling at 25,069.20.

Sensex Prediction: Indecisive Market Movement

The Sensex formed a small bearish candle on the daily chart, which signals uncertainty in the market. A bearish candle indicates that sellers slightly dominated the buyers, but the small size of the candle shows that the difference was not significant.

Support and Resistance Levels for Sensex:

• Support: 81,500 and 81,400 points. If the index falls below these levels, it could test the next support around 81,000 points.

• Resistance: 82,000 and 82,200 points. A strong move above this range could indicate the start of an upward trend again.

Expert Opinion:

• Mayank Jain, Market Analyst at Share.Market (PhonePe Wealth), said that the Sensex is currently indecisive. He noted that immediate support is around 81,500 and resistance near 82,000 points. A clear move above 82,200 points could signal that the upward trend is resuming.

• Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, mentioned that the market is showing non-directional activity. He explained that this indecisiveness between buyers and sellers suggests a cautious approach for traders. According to him, key support levels for intraday traders are 81,750 and 81,500, while resistance is at 82,000 and 82,100. A breakout above 82,100 could take Sensex to 82,400 – 82,500, while a drop below 81,500 may retest the 50-day Simple Moving Average near 81,200.

Nifty 50 Prediction: Consolidation Expected

The Nifty 50 formed a Tweezer Top candlestick pattern, which usually suggests that the market is in a consolidation phase. This means prices may not move strongly in either direction until a clear breakout occurs.

Recent Market Action:

• Nifty 50 created a small negative candle on Monday, showing minor movement both upward and downward.

• The index has faced resistance at 25,150 points, which was also the previous swing high on 21st August.

• This pause after eight consecutive days of gains is seen as a breather before the next move higher.

Support and Resistance Levels for Nifty 50:

• Support: 24,900 points. A fall below this could trigger further weakness.

• Resistance: 25,150 points. A strong breakout above this level may open the path to 25,400 – 25,500 points.

Expert Opinion:

• Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, mentioned that the Nifty 50 may experience a temporary consolidation. He suggested that the current weakness can be seen as a buying opportunity. Once the index crosses the 25,150 level, it could move higher.

• Mayank Jain highlighted that immediate resistance for Nifty 50 is at 25,200 – 25,250. Sustaining above this could pave the way to reach 25,500 points. On the downside, support is near 25,000 and 24,950 points. A drop below these levels may lead to a further correction towards 24,800.

• Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President at Hedged.in, noted that momentum indicators suggest that Nifty 50 is in the overbought region. This could lead to a short-term decline towards support at 24,950. He also mentioned that a smaller time frame shows rejection at the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting some weakness in the recent rally.

Nifty Open Interest (OI) Data

In the derivatives market, the Nifty Open Interest (OI) data shows where traders are placing their bets on Nifty futures:

• Highest Call Writing: 25,100 and 25,200 strike prices. This indicates strong resistance in these areas.

• Maximum Put OI: Concentrated at the 25,000 strike price, showing that many traders expect this level to act as support.

Expert View:

• Amruta Shinde, Technical and Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, explained that the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. A decisive close above the resistance near 25,100 will be crucial for sustaining the bullish trend.

Bank Nifty Prediction: Consolidation with Potential Upside

The Bank Nifty index ended Monday slightly higher, gaining 78.55 points, or 0.14%, to close at 54,887.85. It formed a doji candle near the trend line resistance, which indicates indecision in the market.

Momentum Analysis:

• The daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) is moving sideways, suggesting a lack of strong directional strength.

• The 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) zone at 55,100 – 55,200 is expected to act as a key resistance.

Upside and Downside Targets:

• A sustainable move above 55,200 could lead to a sharp rally towards 55,600 – 56,000.

• On the downside, the 20-day EMA zone of 54,700 – 54,600 will act as crucial support.

Expert Opinions:

• Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research at SBI Securities, mentioned that the Bank Nifty is currently in a consolidation phase. He explained that the RSI and MACD indicators suggest the market is preparing for its next move.

• Om Mehra, Technical Analyst at SAMCO Securities, highlighted that the index has stayed above the 9-EMA and 20-EMA, showing resilience. He added that resistance stands at 55,300 (Supertrend) and 55,700 (upper Bollinger Band), while immediate support remains at 54,600. Bank Nifty is likely to remain in recovery as long as it trades above these EMA levels.

Key Takeaways for Traders

1. Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to open flat, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors.

2. Nifty 50 is in a consolidation phase, but the uptrend remains intact. Buying on dips may offer opportunities for traders.

3. Support and resistance levels are crucial for determining the next market direction. Traders should watch 25,150 for Nifty 50 and 82,000 for Sensex closely.

4. Bank Nifty shows potential for a rally if it breaks above 55,200, while immediate support levels are essential to monitor.

5. Open Interest data in Nifty futures highlights resistance at 25,100 and support at 25,000, suggesting cautious optimism in the market.

The Indian stock market is in a phase of careful observation, with minor losses from Monday and a flat start expected today. Traders are advised to watch the key support and resistance levels closely before making decisions. While Nifty 50 and Sensex may remain indecisive initially, a breakout above resistance could lead to upward movement, and any drop below key support may trigger further corrections. The Bank Nifty also continues to show potential, provided it maintains levels above its key EMAs.

Investors should remain cautious and observe market trends carefully before trading in today’s session.

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