Sensex, Nifty 50 & Bank Nifty: Market Likely to Open Higher

The Indian stock market is expected to see a positive start on Friday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 poised to open higher. The markets are influenced by strong global cues, and trends in the derivatives market are showing optimism. Investors and traders are closely watching key support and resistance levels to guide their trading decisions.

Positive Signals from Gift Nifty

Gift Nifty, which represents the trading in the International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) in Gujarat, is also showing signs of a positive start. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,183, which is nearly 80 points higher than the previous close of Nifty futures. This premium indicates that the Indian benchmark index is likely to open with upward momentum.

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On Thursday, the Indian stock market had a positive session, with the Nifty 50 closing above the important 25,000 level.

• Sensex rose 123.58 points, or 0.15%, to close at 81,548.73.

• Nifty 50 gained 32.40 points, or 0.13%, to settle at 25,005.50.

These gains indicate that market sentiment remains upbeat and investors are optimistic about further growth.

Sensex Outlook for Friday

The Sensex, India’s 30-stock benchmark index, formed a small candle on the daily charts, suggesting consolidation in the market. Intraday charts also indicate that the index is moving in a range rather than showing a sharp trend.

Support and Resistance Levels:

• According to Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 81,200 is a crucial support level for day traders. As long as the Sensex trades above this level, bullish sentiment is expected to continue.

• On the higher side, 81,700 is an immediate breakout zone. If Sensex successfully crosses this level, it could move up to 82,000 - 82,200.

• However, if the index falls below 81,200, the uptrend could weaken, and traders may need to be cautious.

Overall, the Sensex is showing a positive bias, but small intraday fluctuations are expected.

Nifty 50 Derivatives Data

In the derivatives market, cautious optimism is prevailing. Put writers currently have a slight advantage over call writers, showing that traders are preparing for limited downside while being ready for potential gains.

• The 25,500 strike has heavy open interest of 1.05 crore contracts, marking it as a strong resistance level.

• The 25,000 strike has the highest Put Open Interest at 1.06 crore contracts, confirming it as a solid support base.

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, explained that fresh put writing at current levels reflects limited expectations for a sharp fall. Incremental call writing at higher out-of-the-money strikes shows early optimism. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has risen to 1.15 from 1.08, pointing to a bullish undertone. This suggests that upward momentum is possible, though a decisive breakout trigger is still awaited.

Nifty 50 Technical Analysis

The Nifty 50 has shown signs of strength by crossing the trend line resistance and forming a bullish candle on the daily chart. This signals that the market may continue its positive trajectory, but the momentum could remain choppy.

Key Observations from Analysts:

• Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, noted that Nifty formed a small positive candle with a minor upper shadow, indicating a range-bound market. He highlighted that the 25,000 mark is a crucial resistance level, and failure to cross it decisively could result in short-term weakness. The immediate support is at 24,800.

• Nilesh Jain, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at Centrum Broking Ltd, mentioned that the market structure has turned positive, supported by bullish crossovers in momentum indicators. He expects upward momentum to continue with immediate targets at 25,200 and then 25,400, while the 50-day moving average at 24,900 acts as strong support.

• Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President at Hedged.in, observed that Nifty formed an insider candle with a bullish bias, as the closing was higher than the opening price. Momentum indicators suggest further gains, with the index potentially moving toward 25,150 and, if bullish sentiment continues, up to 25,500. He also noted that upcoming political meetings, such as between PM Modi and Donald Trump, may positively influence market sentiment.

Bank Nifty Analysis

Bank Nifty, the 12-stock index representing major banking stocks, also closed higher on Thursday and is likely to continue its positive trend.

• Bank Nifty rallied 133.60 points or 0.24%, closing at 54,669.60, forming a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart. This indicates strong buying interest and market strength.

Key Technical Levels:

• Immediate resistance: 54,800 - 54,900 (100-day EMA)

• Further resistance: 55,400 if it crosses 54,900

• Support zones: 54,400 - 54,300 (crucial support), 200-day DEMA at 53,620

Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, and Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd., both suggest a buy-on-dips approach for Bank Nifty in the short term, with traders watching these support and resistance levels carefully.

Market Summary for Traders

• Sensex: Watching 81,200 support and 81,700 resistance

• Nifty 50: Key support at 24,800, resistance near 25,000 - 25,150, with targets at 25,200 - 25,400

• Bank Nifty: Immediate resistance at 54,900, support at 54,400 - 54,300, potential upside to 55,400

The overall sentiment across indices is positive. Technical indicators such as moving averages, momentum oscillators, and derivatives data indicate that the markets are poised for further gains. However, traders are advised to stay alert for intraday fluctuations and key breakout levels.

Investors should also consider global cues, political developments, and upcoming economic events, which may influence market direction in the coming sessions.

The Indian stock market is showing optimism, with Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty likely to open higher on Friday. Technical charts, derivatives trends, and momentum indicators all point toward bullish sentiment. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels carefully and adopt a cautious but positive approach.

As of now, the markets are in a consolidation phase, with intraday movements expected within defined ranges. Breakouts above critical resistance levels could see the indices move higher, while failure to maintain support may lead to minor corrections.

Overall, investors are advised to watch the market carefully, make informed decisions, and remain aware of global and domestic developments affecting market trends.