Dubai Office Market Reset to Create Two-Tier Future by 2028

Dubai’s rapidly expanding commercial real estate sector is approaching a pivotal transformation that will fundamentally reshape the office market by 2028. Industry experts predict the emergence of a clearly defined two-tier system, where modern Grade A office developments command premium pricing, while older buildings face mounting competitive pressure.

Although Dubai’s commercial real estate market has recorded impressive growth in 2025—posting a 77.9% increase in sales value and a 35.1% rise in transaction volumes over the first 11 months—it has lagged behind the residential sector in terms of innovation, design quality, and construction standards for more than a decade.

“Since 2008, Dubai has not witnessed the launch of a true new generation of office buildings,” said Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties. “During the same period, the residential sector underwent a complete transformation, adopting new architectural styles, enhanced luxury standards, and updated construction codes. The commercial sector missed that reset—but that is now changing.”

According to Al Msaddi, the long-awaited shift will materialise from 2028 onward, when the first wave of next-generation Grade A office buildings is scheduled for handover. These developments will offer modern layouts, higher efficiency, contemporary architecture, and the quality standards demanded by global corporations.

“That will be the moment of truth,” he explained. “Tenants will finally have access to modern, future-ready office spaces. When that happens, we will see how older, secondary offices perform in comparison. The gap between old and new will widen significantly.”

This transition is expected to trigger a market-wide repricing, with quality becoming the primary differentiator. “The entire commercial sector will recalibrate around design, efficiency, and relevance,” Al Msaddi added. “Older buildings will come under pressure, while premium Grade A offices will command higher rents and stronger demand, creating a clear two-tier office market.”

Al Msaddi highlighted Vision Tower in Business Bay as a strong indicator of existing demand for genuine Grade A office space in Dubai. “Vision Tower has consistently outperformed the broader market because it attracts established, corporate tenants,” he said. “With a minimum unit size of a half-floor, the building naturally filters for serious businesses. Its performance clearly demonstrates how strong true Grade A demand already is.”

The broader Dubai real estate market has already delivered record-breaking results in 2025, particularly in the residential segment. A total of 197,263 residential transactions worth AED 624.1 billion were recorded, surpassing the previous full-year record with a month still remaining.

Commercial real estate has also shown robust momentum. Data from DXBinteract reveals that total commercial sales value reached AED 15.5 billion between January and November 2025, representing a 77.91% increase compared to AED 8.7 billion during the same period last year. Transaction volumes climbed to 5,364 deals, up 35.1% from 3,970 transactions in 2024.

Offices led the commercial segment with AED 11.2 billion in sales across 4,012 transactions, followed by retail shops at AED 3.8 billion from 1,321 deals. Smaller contributions came from showrooms, warehouses, workshops, clinics, and specialised properties.

As Dubai prepares for the next phase of its commercial evolution, industry leaders believe the coming years will be decisive. With Grade A offices set to redefine standards and expectations, the city’s office market is poised for its most significant transformation in nearly two decades.