Climate Change Made Ocean Heat Behind Helene 500 Times More Likely

Photo : Reuters

A recent rapid analysis has revealed that climate change significantly intensified Hurricane Helene's rainfall and winds, exacerbating its destructive impact. The unusually warm waters of Mexico played a critical role in transforming Helene into the deadliest hurricane to strike the U.S. mainland in nearly two decades. According to the report published by the World Weather Attribution group, which examines extreme weather events for signs of climate change, human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, made the additional ocean heat up to 500 times more likely.

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The analysis found that Helene delivered approximately 10% more rain than it would have in a pre-industrial climate and that its wind speeds at landfall were enhanced by 11% due to the hotter atmosphere. Helene traversed the region before making landfall in Florida roughly two weeks ago. After moving inland, the storm unleashed record rainfall, leading to a humanitarian crisis in North Carolina. The severe flooding caused by Helene devastated critical infrastructure, complicating disaster response efforts.

Economic losses from the hurricane could reach as high as $250 billion, according to AccuWeather, while insurance losses are anticipated to hit $6.4 billion. The authors of the report cautioned that climate change significantly contributed to the extent of the damage and loss of life resulting from Helene. As Hurricane Milton approaches Florida, having rapidly strengthened over the waters, the U.S. faces the prospect of incurring billions more in losses.

Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central and one of the 21 researchers involved in the study, remarked, "The heat that human activities are adding to the atmosphere and oceans is like steroids for hurricanes. If humans keep heating the climate, we will keep seeing storms rapidly morph into monster hurricanes, leading to more destruction."

The analysis indicates that hurricanes with the intensity of Helene are likely to become more frequent in the Southeast U.S. In a pre-industrial climate, a storm of Helene's magnitude had a one-in-130-year chance of occurring in any given year. However, due to rising temperatures, such storms are now expected to make landfall approximately every 50 years on average, according to the WWA analysis. While the report has not undergone peer review, it utilized established methodologies to reach its conclusions.

In recent decades, storms have shown a tendency to strengthen more rapidly, a trend attributed to ocean warming, partly driven by climate change. Although the additional heat has not increased the overall frequency of hurricanes, those that do occur are likely to be more intense, as noted by Suzana Camargo, a climate scientist at Columbia University.

"What’s happened is exactly what we have been talking about for decades: to expect more intense hurricanes in a warmer world," Camargo stated, highlighting the ongoing reality of climate change and its impact on storm dynamics.