Canadian Police Prepare for 'Worst-Case Scenario' Amid Tensions

Photo : Reuters

Canadian authorities are preparing for a potential surge in asylum-seekers, particularly those fleeing the United States after the election of President Donald Trump. His platform, which promises sweeping deportations, has raised concerns about increased illegal migration into Canada, especially through unofficial border crossings.

Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) Sergeant Charles Poirier stated that Canadian law enforcement had been preparing for months for such a scenario. He explained that if Trump’s policies result in a mass exodus of asylum-seekers from the U.S., it could overwhelm Canada’s ability to manage them effectively. "The worst-case scenario would be people crossing in large numbers everywhere on the territory," Poirier said. "If we had 100 people per day entering across the border, it would be difficult to manage, and our officers would have to cover vast areas to arrest everyone."

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The situation echoes the 2017 surge when thousands of people crossed the border into Canada at unofficial points, particularly at Roxham Road near Quebec, which became a popular route for asylum-seekers. However, since then, Canada and the U.S. signed an expanded agreement that closed many of these loopholes, meaning asylum-seekers attempting to cross at these unofficial points are now turned back, except under a narrow set of circumstances.

This has forced many asylum-seekers to resort to even more dangerous methods, including crossing the border undetected and hiding until they can file claims, putting their safety at risk. Abdulla Daoud, director of Montreal’s Refugee Centre, explained, "When you don’t create legitimate pathways or when people have no choice but to take extreme risks to seek safety, unfortunately, people are going to try to do the impossible."

The expected increase in asylum claims is compounded by Canada's already record-high refugee claim numbers. As of July, nearly 20,000 individuals filed refugee claims, a figure that dipped slightly in September but still remains historically high, with over 250,000 claims pending. The surge in global displacement and Canada’s limited control over the number of asylum claims exacerbates the situation.

Organizations that support asylum-seekers, such as the FCJ Refugee Centre in Toronto, are already dealing with dozens of new arrivals each week. Founder Loly Rico warned that Canada would likely face even more pressure in the coming months. "Trump's election will definitely impact Canada," she said, predicting an increase in people crossing the border and seeking support. She also expressed concern over the winter months, recalling the tragic deaths of a family of four who froze to death while attempting to cross near Emerson, Manitoba, in 2022.

Canada’s efforts to tighten its borders have inadvertently boosted the business of human smugglers, who now charge additional fees to transport people overland or by air into Canada. "Unfortunately, until government policy shifts, we’re not going to be prepared, and the issue will continue to be politicized," said Daoud.

In response to the anticipated rise in asylum claims, Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller has assured that his government has a plan in place, although the details remain undisclosed. His office stated that the immigration department would continue to prepare for all possible scenarios, ensuring that any approach taken would prioritize the best interests of Canada and its residents.

As Canada faces the potential influx of asylum-seekers, the need for increased investment in the asylum infrastructure is clear, with the Refugee Centre’s Rico urging the government to act now to better support the refugees arriving at its borders.