Zelenskiy, Putin Compete for Advantage as Trump Prepares for Ukraine Pivot

Photo : Bloomberg

After the recent US presidential election, both Ukrainian and Russian leaders have been actively trying to influence President-elect Donald Trump, aiming to gain an advantage in resolving their long-running conflict. The battle for Trump’s attention began immediately after the election, with each side making public statements in a bid to shape the direction of his foreign policy on Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy took the opportunity to speak on the potential for a “fair ending” to the war with Russia, emphasizing that a hasty conclusion could lead to Ukraine’s defeat. Speaking at a summit in Budapest, hosted by Viktor Orban, a critic of extensive aid to Ukraine, Zelenskiy warned that pushing for an early end to the hostilities would mean a significant loss for Ukraine. "A quick ending would be a loss," Zelenskiy told reporters, stressing the importance of not rushing into a resolution that could undermine Ukraine’s position.

On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered congratulations to Trump on his victory and spoke positively about the prospect of the US and Russia restoring relations. Putin highlighted Trump’s campaign pledge to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, suggesting that Trump’s ideas about resolving the conflict were worth considering. Speaking at the annual Valdai Club meeting in Sochi, Putin expressed his openness to working with any US president chosen by the American people, referencing Trump’s stated desire to help end the Ukrainian crisis. "It seems to me, it deserves attention what was said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis," Putin remarked.

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These statements from both leaders underscored the shifting dynamics of international politics following Trump’s election. Until now, the US and its European allies have been providing significant military and financial support to Ukraine to help fend off Russia’s invasion. Trump's election, however, has introduced uncertainty, especially as he has indicated that he might seek to scale back aid to Ukraine, which has raised concerns about the future of Western support.

In an interview, Trump said that although he had already spoken with Zelenskiy following the election, he had not yet spoken to Putin but was planning to. He indicated that he hoped to have a conversation with the Russian leader in the near future, noting that his relationship with Russia could play a key role in resolving the ongoing conflict.

The situation has also raised questions about the continuation of US and European financial support for Ukraine, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban suggesting that the $50 billion in aid already pledged by the West may now be an "open question." Orban pointed out that both US and European nations were growing weary of the financial burden and questioned whether that level of support could continue.

Zelenskiy had hoped to rally his European allies to provide continued backing in the wake of Trump’s victory. However, his efforts were complicated by the collapse of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government over disputes regarding aid to Ukraine. Zelenskiy’s comment at the summit that some European leaders were advocating for Ukraine to make concessions was met with strong opposition. He called it "unacceptable for Ukraine and suicidal for all of Europe."

Meanwhile, on the battlefield, Russia continued its military assault on Ukraine. On Thursday, Russian forces targeted the southern city of Zaporizhzhia with five glide bombs, killing four civilians and injuring at least 18 others. Russian forces also launched a barrage of over 100 explosive drones overnight, intensifying the suffering of civilians.

Despite these attacks, Putin has shown no intention of making concessions to bring an end to the conflict. He has expressed willingness to engage in negotiations but insists that any talks must take into account the territorial realities resulting from Russia's invasion. He has stated that Russia is not prepared to concede territory that it has occupied since the start of the war in February 2022.

Putin’s reaction to Trump’s victory has been a mixture of cautious optimism and apprehension. While some in Moscow are excited about the prospect of a new US administration under Trump, others are wary, recalling the sanctions and diplomatic expulsions that took place during Trump’s first term despite his seemingly favorable stance towards Russia.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s staunch supporters in Eastern Europe argue that aiding Ukraine is not only the morally right thing to do but also strategically important for European security. They warn that if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, it could embolden him to challenge Europe further, leading to even greater security threats down the line. "If Putin wins in Ukraine, he'll pose a bigger threat to Europe," said Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, underscoring the wider stakes of the war for Europe’s security and stability.

In the aftermath of Trump’s election, some European leaders have begun reaching out to the President-elect to discuss the future of Ukraine and their military cooperation. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, for instance, has been engaging with European leaders to explore how to deepen defense coordination and bolster support for Ukraine in case Trump decides to reduce aid after taking office in January.

Zelenskiy, for his part, has also made it clear that he is seeking US assistance to force Russia into negotiations based on Ukraine’s terms, hoping to avoid a frozen conflict that would give Moscow time to rearm and potentially attack again. He has warned against the dangers of prolonged negotiations that would allow Russia to maintain its hold on Ukrainian territory.

As the situation develops, it remains uncertain whether Trump will pursue a path of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine or whether he will align more closely with those who advocate for continued support for Ukraine’s efforts to reclaim its territory and resist Russian aggression. The ongoing conflict will undoubtedly remain a focal point of international diplomacy as Trump prepares to take office and confront the complex challenges posed by the war in Ukraine.

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