US Intelligence: Iran Has Not Made Decision to Pursue Nuclear Weapons

Photo : AFP

The United States maintains that Iran has not made a decision to pursue a nuclear weapon, despite Tehran facing significant strategic challenges recently. This assertion comes from two U.S. officials, highlighting recent events such as Israel's targeted killings of key Hezbollah leaders and Iran's two largely unsuccessful missile strikes against Israel.

A senior official from the Biden administration and a spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) echoed sentiments expressed earlier this week, noting that there is no evidence indicating that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reversed his 2003 decision to suspend the nuclear weaponization program. The ODNI spokesperson emphasized, "We assess that the Supreme Leader has not made a decision to resume the nuclear weapons program that Iran suspended in 2003."

Stay informed with the latest news. Follow DXB News Network on WhatsApp Channel 

This intelligence assessment sheds light on the U.S. government's reluctance to endorse any Israeli military action aimed at Iran's nuclear facilities, particularly following Iran's recent ballistic missile attack. President Joe Biden made it clear after the missile strike that he would not support an Israeli assault on Iranian nuclear sites, although he did not elaborate on the reasoning behind this decision. His comments were met with strong criticism from Republican leaders, including former President Donald Trump.

U.S. officials have long acknowledged the potential pitfalls of targeting Iran's nuclear weapons program. They argue that any such attack might only serve to delay Iran's nuclear ambitions, possibly even fortifying Tehran's determination to pursue a bomb. "We're all watching this space very carefully," remarked one Biden administration official.

While Iran has consistently denied having a nuclear weapons program, the country's representatives did not respond immediately to requests for comments regarding the recent assessments.

In recent weeks, Israel's military has inflicted severe losses on Hezbollah, a prominent ally of Iran within the so-called "Axis of Resistance." Notable losses for the group include the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, during an Israeli airstrike last month. The weakening of this crucial Iranian ally has led some analysts to speculate whether Iran might reignite its nuclear ambitions as a means of self-protection.

Beth Sanner, a former deputy director of national intelligence in the U.S., expressed concern that the likelihood of Khamenei reconsidering his 2003 ban on nuclear weapons has increased. She warned that if Israel were to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran would likely respond by advancing its nuclear weapons program. However, she pointed out that developing an actual nuclear weapon would still take considerable time, stating, "They can't get a weapon in a day. It will take months and months and months."

Currently, Iran is enriching uranium to levels as high as 60% fissile purity, nearing the 90% threshold required for weapons-grade material. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran theoretically possesses enough enriched uranium for nearly four nuclear bombs if it chooses to further enrich it. This expansion has significantly decreased the "breakout time," which is the time required to produce sufficient weapons-grade uranium for a bomb, to "a week or a little more," down from over a year under the 2015 nuclear agreement that Trump abandoned during his presidency.

### The Potential for Conflict and Political Ramifications

In light of Iran's recent missile assault—launching over 180 ballistic missiles that were largely intercepted by Israeli air defenses and the U.S. military—speculation abounds regarding Israel's potential response. Israel has not disclosed its specific targets in retaliation for the attack. However, U.S. officials are reportedly urging Israel to calibrate its response carefully to avoid escalating tensions into a broader regional conflict.

Israel views Iran's nuclear ambitions as an existential threat, particularly given the complex web of conflicts involving Iran and its allied groups in Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. The dynamics between Israel and Iran have become key campaign issues ahead of the upcoming November 5 presidential election, with both Trump and his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, positioning themselves as staunch supporters of Israel.

Former Israeli intelligence officer and government official Avi Melamed stated that while Iran has faced setbacks, it still has options to adapt without necessarily moving towards the rapid development of a nuclear weapon. "The Iranians have to recalculate what's next. I don't think at this point they will rush to either develop or boost the (nuclear) program toward military capacity," he explained. Instead, Melamed believes Iran will seek to identify new maneuvering space to respond to current challenges.