Taiwan’s Defense Drills Warn of Possible China Invasion by 2027

Photo : AP

Taiwan has said for the first time that China might try to attack the island in 2027. This warning came during Taiwan’s yearly military drills, showing growing fears over China’s increasing threats.

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On Tuesday, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry shared a report with lawmakers, saying that the island’s war games this year will practice for a possible Chinese invasion in 2027. These drills, which prepare Taiwan for a military attack, will be longer than before, lasting for 10 days instead of the usual five. This shows that Taiwan is getting more serious about its defense as tensions with China keep rising.

Though this is the first time Taiwan has given a year for a possible attack, Defense Minister Wellington Koo said people should not read too much into it. He explained that Taiwan’s annual drills always pick a future date, usually one or two years ahead, to allow time to practice with new weapons and training. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Koo said the goal is to repeat the exercises many times to get better at handling a real attack.

It is still unclear if naming 2027 will change how the drills are carried out or if it is more of a political message. Some experts believe Taiwan may have picked the year to put pressure on lawmakers. Taiwan’s parliament is divided, and opposition parties have blocked some military spending plans. By naming a possible invasion date, Taiwan’s leaders might be trying to convince lawmakers and the public that they need to increase the defense budget. Jack Chen, who leads the Formosa Defense Vision group, said this could make people feel that spending more money on the military is urgent and necessary.

The year 2027 is also important because Chinese President Xi Jinping has set a goal for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to become a “modern military” by then. By 2047, China wants the PLA to be one of the strongest forces in the world. US officials have warned that China might be preparing to attack Taiwan by 2027. They say China has been building more fighter jets, warships, and missiles in recent years, which shows they are getting ready for possible war.

However, Taiwan’s defense leaders do not fully agree with this US warning. Last year, Koo said that China would still not be ready for a full-scale attack on Taiwan by 2027. He explained that China’s military is still not skilled enough at launching large amphibious landings, which would be needed for an invasion. Also, recent corruption cases in China’s army have made people question how strong and organized the PLA actually is. The US Defense Department also said in a report last December that corruption in the PLA could slow down Xi’s military plans and make it harder for him to trust his top commanders.

Since Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, took office in May, China has increased its military pressure on the island. China has held two major military drills around Taiwan and regularly sends fighter jets across the unofficial boundary line that separates the two sides.

This week, China launched more military exercises near Taiwan, just days after Lai gave a speech calling China a “hostile foreign force.” No previous Taiwanese leader had ever used that term before, showing how relations between Taiwan and China are getting worse.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has urged Taiwan to spend more on its defense to prepare for possible threats. However, Trump has not clearly said whether the US would directly defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack. This is part of the US’s long-standing “strategic ambiguity” policy, where the US keeps its plans unclear to make China think twice before attacking.

China has also become more aggressive in its words toward Taiwan. Wang Huning, a top Chinese leader in charge of Taiwan affairs, recently said China must “make the reunification of the motherland” a reality. Over the weekend, China’s state-run, People’s Daily, published an article calling President Lai a “cornered dog,” showing the increasingly harsh tone from Beijing.