Nostradamus of US Predicted Harris Win, Realized He Was Wrong

Photo : Allan Lichtman / Youtube

Allan Lichtman, known as the "Nostradamus of US polls," was left speechless after his bold prediction that Kamala Harris would win the presidential election turned out to be wrong. Lichtman, a historian, political forecaster, and author, had long been confident that Harris would make history as the first woman president of the United States. His prediction, based on his unique model of political forecasting, was widely followed in political circles. However, when former President Donald Trump secured a landslide victory over Harris, Lichtman found himself at a loss for words.

The moment of disbelief occurred during a six-hour YouTube livestream with his son, Sam Lichtman, as they watched the election results unfold. Lichtman, who had been providing his analysis throughout the evening, was visibly shaken as Trump inched closer to victory. As networks began calling crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania for Trump, Lichtman muttered, "I don’t get it," reflecting his shock at how the election was turning out. His son, Sam, echoed his disillusionment, admitting that this was the first moment of the night when he felt a sense of hopelessness.

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As the results continued to come in, Lichtman, who was clearly tired and stressed, lamented the state of the country. "Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow. And I’m not doing any interviews," he said, trying to process the unexpected turn of events. Holding his head in his hands, he added, "The democracy is gone," indicating his fear that a Trump victory signified a decline in democratic values.

Lichtman, who has been a prominent figure in the world of political forecasting, expressed his concern for the future of democracy in the United States. He pointed out that the loss of democracy is often a slow process that happens from within, and once it’s gone, it’s almost impossible to recover. Reflecting on the state of global democracy in the 21st century, he noted, "Throughout the 21st century, democracy has been in decline everywhere around the world, and America has now fallen in step."

Despite his frustration, Lichtman did not completely lose hope. In a message to young people, he urged them to "never give up hope. Never stop striving. Never stop trying," encouraging them to remain engaged in the fight for democracy and social justice.

Lichtman, who developed the "13 Keys to the White House" system in 1981, has a long track record of successfully predicting election outcomes. His model focuses on historical patterns and emphasizes that factors like governance—not just campaign strategies or demographic trends—are the key to determining the outcome of US presidential elections. His approach has allowed him to predict the winner of every election since 1984, even when his forecasts went against the grain of popular opinion.

In the past, Lichtman had confidently predicted that Kamala Harris would become the first female president of the United States, describing her potential presidency as "foreshadowing where America is going." He had argued that the US was rapidly becoming a "majority-minority country," and that his prediction of Harris’ victory reflected this shift in demographics. "Old white guys like me, we are on the decline," Lichtman had said in an earlier interview with NDTV.

Despite this setback, Lichtman’s influence as a political forecaster remains significant. His ability to use historical trends to predict election outcomes has earned him a reputation as one of the most reliable political analysts in the US. While the 2020 election outcome didn’t align with his prediction, Lichtman’s model continues to be a valuable tool in understanding the dynamics of US elections. His reflection on the state of democracy serves as a reminder of the importance of staying vigilant and engaged in the political process, no matter the outcome.

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