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Iran's Military Barrage on Israel: Key Implications and Insights

Photo : AP

In response to Iran's missile barrage on Israel, which involved more than 180 ballistic missiles largely intercepted by Israel’s air defense systems, Israel is preparing to retaliate. Analysts suggest various possible actions Israel, with U.S. backing, might take to counter Iran's aggression.

One of the most likely scenarios involves Israel targeting Iranian military installations, particularly those involved in the production of ballistic missiles used in the recent attacks. Israeli forces could also target Iran’s air defense systems and missile-launching sites to prevent future threats. The U.S. has previously accused Tehran of supplying short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, though both countries deny this claim. Analysts believe this response would be seen as a proportional and direct retaliation.

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Another option on the table is a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which could delay Tehran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran’s nuclear program, spread across numerous locations, includes some sites deep underground, making them difficult to target. However, a large-scale attack on these facilities would carry significant risks, possibly pushing Iran to accelerate its nuclear ambitions. Some experts caution that such a move would provoke Iran into taking more extreme retaliatory steps. Iran denies having a nuclear weapons program, though the IAEA and U.S. intelligence concluded that it pursued a coordinated nuclear program until 2003. With the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, experts warn that Iran could quickly produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb.

Israel may also consider targeting Iran’s petroleum infrastructure, which would severely damage the Iranian economy. However, this could provoke Iran to attack oil facilities in other regions, leading to a spike in global oil prices. Such a scenario could have wider geopolitical consequences, especially for the U.S., where rising fuel prices are a politically sensitive issue ahead of the upcoming November elections. David Des Roches, a former U.S. Department of Defense official, noted that while rising oil prices might normally deter military actions, Israel might view this as advantageous to certain political campaigns, especially those aligned with Donald Trump.

While military action is seen as the most likely response, non-military options remain on the table. U.S. President Joe Biden has suggested additional sanctions on Iran, which could increase pressure on the already heavily sanctioned nation. Current sanctions limit nearly all U.S. trade with Iran, block Iranian government assets in the U.S., and restrict foreign assistance and arms sales.

Israel’s cyber capabilities offer another route for retaliation. Israel’s recent cyber offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon has drawn attention to its elite Unit 8200, a highly specialized cyber warfare and intelligence group. This unit was reportedly instrumental in the planning and execution of the operation, showcasing Israel’s significant cyber warfare prowess, which could be used in future actions against Iran.

As the situation continues to evolve, Israel’s response to Iran’s aggression remains highly anticipated, with both military and non-military strategies being closely considered amid the complex geopolitical landscape.

Oct. 4, 2024 3:46 p.m. 411

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