Explainer: Why the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Is Escalating Once More

Photo : Reuters

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated significantly, with recent events heightening fears of a broader war. On Sunday, Israel vowed to take strong retaliatory action against Hezbollah, accusing the group of a deadly rocket attack on a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The attack reportedly resulted in the deaths of 12 children and teenagers. Hezbollah, however, has denied responsibility for this incident, which has been described as the deadliest in Israeli or Israeli-annexed territory since the start of the Gaza war on October 7.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah reignited on October 8, a day after Hamas's attack on southern Israel, which triggered the Gaza war. Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, has stated that its attacks are meant to support Palestinians who are under Israeli bombardment in Gaza. This conflict is part of a larger regional struggle involving Iran-backed militants, with Hezbollah being a prominent member of the Axis of Resistance.

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The ongoing hostilities have caused significant casualties and displacement on both sides. Tens of thousands have been forced to flee their homes, with Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. The violence has led to the deaths of around 350 Hezbollah fighters and over 100 civilians in Lebanon. On the Israeli side, Hezbollah's attacks have resulted in 23 civilian deaths and at least 17 soldiers killed since October.

The situation has put a strain on Israeli communities, with many displaced and unable to return home. The destruction and humanitarian impact on both sides are considerable, with repeated attacks causing severe damage and suffering.

The potential for further escalation remains high. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of devastating consequences for Hezbollah, including the possibility of turning Beirut into a war zone if a full-scale conflict ensues. Hezbollah has indicated that it is ready for a broader conflict if necessary but has also suggested that it has only utilized a small portion of its military capabilities.

Past conflicts, such as the 2006 war, have shown the potential for widespread devastation. The 2006 conflict saw extensive damage in Lebanon, including to Beirut’s southern suburbs, and resulted in nearly one million people being displaced. In Israel, Hezbollah's rockets caused significant damage and forced about 300,000 people to flee.

Hezbollah's current arsenal includes advanced rockets that can target all parts of Israel, and the group has demonstrated new weaponry, including explosive drones and guided missiles. Despite the ongoing violence, there is still a chance for de-escalation, largely dependent on developments in Gaza. Efforts to secure a ceasefire and address Israeli hostages have stalled, impacting the broader regional dynamics.

The United States, which views Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, is involved in diplomatic efforts to ease the conflict. Hezbollah has expressed conditional openness to agreements that benefit Lebanon, provided that Israel halts its Gaza offensive. Israel, while preferring a diplomatic resolution, has also prepared for military action to ensure security along its northern borders.

In conclusion, the Israel-Hezbollah conflict has intensified with recent attacks and accusations, leading to substantial casualties and raising concerns about further escalation. The resolution of the conflict depends on regional dynamics and ongoing diplomatic efforts.

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