Toy makers scramble to cash in on this holiday blind‑box craze

The holiday aisles are quietly transforming this year. What once felt like a niche collectible category is now getting serious play: toy companies are scrambling to ride the “blind‑box” wave — mystery‑packaged toys that keep buyers chasing the one they really want.

For many retailers and manufacturers, the appeal is simple. These blind‑box toys are often lower cost, making them easy impulse buys or stocking‑stuffer options. They also tap into a psychological hook: the surprise element. Once shoppers buy one, the urge to “try again” to complete a set kicks in. As one industry advisor put it: “people … don’t buy one, they buy 10, and 30. There’s the chase.”

It all started getting big this past summer when the craze around Labubu — “ugly‑cute” mini‑monsters with toothy grins — spiked and sold out across outlets, sending resale prices sky‑high. Manufacturers and retailers took note, and now major players like Hasbro and Mattel are offering versions of familiar toy lines packaged as “mystery” formats to tap into the trend.

For example, one U.S. retailer doubled its blind‑box assortment for the season, adding brands such as Baby Three, Miniverse, Minibrands and Aphmau. And even though many of these toys are made in China — where tariffs have been driving up costs — blind‑box items manage to stay on the affordable end, which adds to their appeal.

Yet, while the trend is hot, it also comes with some caveats. Despite high interest, analysts caution that blind‑box toys likely won’t fundamentally lift overall holiday toy spending. The category is often marketed as an impulse buy rather than a main gift purchase, meaning its impact on total revenue may be modest. Also, the broader toy industry is facing pressure: one forecast suggests toy sales volume in the key November‑December period could fall by up to 2.5 % despite the blind‑box push.

Still, for specialty retailers — those focused on collectibles and novelty items — this may become one of the leading categories of the season. A Canada‑based chain, for instance, expects this Christmas to be a “record” moment for blind‑box items, particularly driven by adult collectors as much as children.

In short: toy makers are leaning in hard on surprise‑packaging strategies this year, hoping to capture attention, tap into collector culture, and deliver that “just one more” trigger for holiday shoppers. Whether that leads to a significantly stronger holiday season for all toy companies remains to be seen — but the aisle sure looks different.